Monday, February 14, 2011

Monte Carlo and Your Probabilty of Success

Are You saving enough for retirement?

How much can you withdraw from your retirement portfolio?

Does your retirement plan give you a probability of success?

A retirement savings/investment plan should take into account how much you are saving, how that money is invested, and what your spending will be in retirement.

Planners often use the above mentioned factors along with a probability simulator (known as a Monte Carlo Simulator) to determine your chance of success in retirement. When the probability is low, adjustments need to be made.

Monte Carlo simulators have been around since World War II, and with the power of personal computers, it is available to financial planners. Monte Carlo will use the historical risk and return characteristics of your investment portfolio , combined with your anticipated withdrawals, and simulate 10,000 different possibilities in order to give probabilities of success.

Monte Carlo will produce outcomes much different than assuming your money will grow at a constant return. Constant returns do not occur in the real world. Investors do not receive a constant 7% or 8% on their investment portfolio. One year they may be up 12%, the next down 3% etc. Over time, the average may be 7% but the ups and downs result in very different outcomes, especially when one is withdrawing money every year from the portfolio.

Years of study by academics and financial planners using monte carlo analysis has shown that withdrawing more than 4% per year out of a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio could result in a retiree running out of money before he/she dies.

This topic is an important area of study for planners for obvious reasons. telling a client that they can spend more per year than they can afford is disastrous. A simple rule is offered by William Bernstein in his book “The Investor’s Manifesto”

“At a 2 percent withdrawal rate, your nest egg will survive all but catastrophic institutional and military collapse; at 3 percent, you are probably safe; at 4 percent you are taking real chances; and at 5 percent and beyond you should consider annuitizing most, if not all, of your nest egg,”

What Bernstein means by annuitizing at 5% and beyond is that if you need to withdraw more than 5% from your retirement portfolio you may want to purchase an immediate fixed annuity. This is an insurance product, where you turn over your portfolio to an insurance company and they guarantee you a fixed monthly payment for life. Even in today’s low rate environment, one can purchase annuities at 6% returns.The trade off is that you lose access to your nest egg. If you die 2 months after you purchase the annuity, the insurance company keeps your money.

Canadian planner and author of “Unveiling the Retirement Myth,” Jim C. Otar, who uses historical returns to generate his data, specifies 3.8% as the max withdrawal rate from a diversified stock/bond portfolio.

Finally, an October 2007 Journal of Financial Planning article by three professors from the State University of New York at Brockport confirms the above discussion. They use Monte Carlo to create safe withdrawal rates for different stock/bond allocations. Once again, withdrawal rates exceeding 4% in a 50% stock/50%bond portfolio show increasing fail rates.

The important point in all the analysis is that there is no investment magic that will allow a retiree to withdraw more than 4% per year and not risk running out of money in retirement. That is why it is important to develop a savings plan before retirement in order to build enough savings so that you can live the lifestyle you want in retirement.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Two Short Practical Books

I have recently read two wonderful books that are extremely valuable for anyone concerned about saving and retirement.

The first: : "The Investment Answer" is only 56 pages yet filled with decades of investing wisdom. In the book, the authors clearly explain investment theory for the layman. This book is a labor of love. It was co-author, Gordon Murray's, dying message to investors after working on Wall St for 25 years. He wanted to give the world the benefit of his insight before dying from brain cancer. Below is a link to a NYT article profiling the authors: Daniel C. Goldie, and Gordon S. Murray.


The second book, "Can I Retire" by Mike Piper runs exactly 100 pages and deals with the nuts and bolts concerning how much one may need to have saved in order to retire, social security, IRAs, investing, and taxes during retirement. Mike Piper has written a practical guide that will benefit anyone who is concerned about effectively managing their retirement.

Both books are written for the average person with little or no financial background. They will educate and possibly help one make decisions that could benefit them in real dollars exceeding thousands per year.

Monday, January 31, 2011

Money Magazine interview with Jack Bogle

In the link below, the Vanguard founder expands on his 2 simple rules:
1.Ignore Fads
2. Stop trying to beat the market


Bogle is one of the most respected men in the investment and mutual fund industry. His books and interviews have taught me a great deal. I recommend his books and articles. He is an advocate for the average investor and he writes so that the average investor can understand and learn.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

It should be all about YOU

I am often asked: What can a Financial Planner do for me?

A good financial planner should be all about YOU , and do at least the following 10 things for you:

1. Develop a good understanding of your life goals and current financial situation.
2. Understand your risk tolerances and risk sensitivity.
3. Develop a savings plan for you - how much to save per year in order to achieve your goals.
4. Develop an allocation of stocks, bonds, and cash that is right for you.
5. Analyze your life, disability, and long term care insurance needs.
6. Help you decide the best time to start taking your Social Security benefits.
7. If retired, minimize your taxes by advising on tax efficient investments and your distribution order from your taxable and tax deferred accounts - the order matters.
8. . Give you investment advice based on probabilities not possibilities. The planner should be able to give you a probability of success not “my feeling is” or “our economist feels”
9. Make you aware of any estate and estate tax issues.
10. Always act in your best interest - a good measure of this is whether the planner is a fee-only planner. Which means that the planner works for a fixed fee and does not receive commissions or fees for any products and/or advice he recommends. You can also ask if your advisor is a CFP (Certified Financial Planner). CFPs have proven themselves academically and are held to a high ethical standard.

In most cases, a good planner will save you hundreds and maybe thousands per year in unnecessary fees, taxes and insurance. In addition, you will get a piece of mind and that is priceless.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Interview with author Rick Ferri on the advantages of index funds

This is a short interview, from Amazon, with Rick Ferri, investment advisor and author. He makes the case for index funds in his new book "the Power of Passive Investing"


Editorial Reviews

Product Description

A practical guide to passive investing

Time and again, individual investors discover, all too late, that actively picking stocks is a loser's game. The alternative lies with index funds. This passive form of investing allows you to participate in the markets relatively cheaply while prospering all the more because the money saved on investment expenses stays in your pocket.

In his latest book, investment expert Richard Ferri shows you how easy and accessible index investing is. Along the way, he highlights how successful you can be by using this passive approach to allocate funds to stocks, bonds, and other prudent asset classes.

  • Addresses the advantages of index funds over portfolios that are actively managed
  • Offers insights on index-based funds that provide exposure to designated broad markets and don't make bets on individual securities
  • Ferri is also author of the Wiley title: The ETF Book and co-author of The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning

If you're looking for a productive investment approach that won't take all of your time to implement, then The Power of Passive Investing is the book you need to read.

Q&A with Author Rick Ferri

Author Rick Ferri
What is passive investing?
Passive investing is about achieving the returns you need in the markets by using low cost index funds and exchange-traded funds. Passive investing is all about earning your fair share of financial market returns whether the market is US stocks, international stocks, bonds, commodities, or any combination of those investments.

The opposite of passive investing is active investing. This is the act of trying to beat the markets by using an infinite number of higher-cost strategies that probably won’t work. Nobel Laureates in Economics have been telling us for decades that passive investing is a better investment strategy than active investing. The Power of Passive Investing brings many of those studies together in one book.

How is this book different from your previous ones, such as The ETF Book, All About Asset Allocation, andAll About Index Funds?
My previous books explain how to select low-cost index funds and ETFs, and how to create a portfolio using these funds. The Power of Passive Investing provides the proof about why this is a superior strategy to trying to beat the markets. The evidence in the book is irrefutable.

Who is the target audience of this book?
The Power of Passive Investing is written for any investor who wants to understand more about the mutual funds they are investing in, including people who have a 401(k) or similar work savings plan. It’s also an important book for brokers and consultants who make a living recommending mutual funds and ETFs, as well as banks, trust departments and investment advisors who manage other people’s money. Finally, it’s a particularly important book for people who oversee endowments, foundations, and pension funds.

An observation you make is that while it’s possible to beat the market, it’s not probable. What are the odds a mutual fund will beat the market?
Mutual fund companies that try to beat the market argue that it’s possible to do so. They are right. It is possible; it’s just not probable, and the payout stinks.

Active managers often point to Warren Buffett, the famous CEO of Berkshire Hathaway as an example. They imply that since Warren beats the markets that we should believe that they, too, will win. That’s nonsense. Here are three reasons why it can’t be true:

  • About one-third of mutual funds go out of business every 10 years, and about 50 percent are defunct after 20 years.
  • Only about 1 in 3 of the surviving funds outperform index funds. Surviving funds are the ones that don’t close, and it assumes you know which ones those will be, which is not possible.
  • The excess return from the winning surviving funds doesn’t come close to the shortfall from the losing funds, and this is before accounting for the losses in the defunct funds before they closed.
The Power of Passive Investing explains the near certainty that a portfolio of index funds will beat a portfolio of active funds over time. Tell me about this conclusion.
We’ve addressed one mutual fund versus one index and the low probability for active fund success. But that’s doesn’t define the whole problem because people don’t own just one mutual fund. They own several funds across diversified asset classes such as US stock, international stock, bonds, real estate, and so forth.

Having several active funds in a portfolio exponentially lowers the probability that the portfolio will beat a comparable index fund portfolio. As more active funds are added, and the longer their held, the probability that a portfolio of index funds will outperform the active fund portfolio increases dramatically to the point where the index funds have a 99 percent probability of outperforming a comparable portfolio of active funds. Now that’s something that all investors should consider!

Why do active investing strategies fail to beat the market for the vast majority of investors?
There are several reasons that active funds fail to deliver, not the least is the cost of trying to beat the markets. Hundreds of thousands of investment managers, investment advisors, brokers, mutual funds manager, pension funds managers, banks, trust departments, individual investors, traders, etc., are attempting to out-fox the markets. They spend hundreds of billions of dollars each year trading securities, paying managers and consultants, buying research, etc. The cost of trying to beat the market makes doing so impossible for most people.

A second reason investors fail to beat the market is due to poor behavior. They seek high returns by looking in the wrong places for outperformance. Active investors chase after past performance, they chase star ratings, and they chase the news. They’re putting money in places today where they should have already had money. This tail chasing game costs investors dearly.

You make the case for low-cost index funds. But mutual fund fees aren’t the only cost. What other costs do investors bear?
There are trading costs, commissions, advisor fees, taxes, 12b-1 fees, administrative costs, research costs and the list goes on. Much of these costs are hidden from investors. For example, most investors in 401(k) plans don’t provide investors good transparency on the costs they’re paying.

Another bastion of gluttony is high advisor fees. This issue is just starting to come out in the media. The typical investment advisor charges one percent per year to manage a portfolio of mutual funds for clients. That’s crazy-high given the huge advances in portfolio management software and other technology that have occurred over the years. Advisors today should be able to handle five times the amount of clients with half the amount of staff than they did in the 1990s. These productivity gains have not been passed on to clients in the form of lower fees.

What should investment advisers charge their clients?
Well, it’s not one percent, which is the ‘standard fee’ you’ll hear in the marketplace. I believe Investors shouldn’t pay more than 0.5 percent per year to an advisor, and probably less. My firm, Portfolio Solutions, charges only 0.25 percent in annual fees. We’ve been charging this low fee for more than a decade, and it has saved our clients millions of dollars over the years. That’s real money is in their pockets.

Why do so many people try to beat the market if the proof that passive investing outperforms active investing is irrefutable?
There’s big advertising dollars promoting active management - much more than passive managers can afford. Remember, actively managed funds charge 5 to 10 times the fee of a comparable index fund. Much of this huge revenue stream is spent bombarding the public with nonsense about how active mangers can beat the market, and it basically ensures that the truth about passive investing gets lost in the noise.

Did you know that for every new book published on passive investing there are at least a dozen books published on how you can beat the market? Did you know that for every media interview with a passive investing advocate like myself there are at least 100 interviews with people who claim they can beat the market?

It’s actually amazing to me that any information about passive investing gets to the public, and it’s a credit to investors who have looked beyond the smoke and mirrors.

How can someone adopt a passive investment strategy? What’s the first step?
The answer is to start learning the real facts about the markets and investing. You can start with The Power of Passive Investing if you’re already knowledgeable about mutual fund investing. I’ve also written several how-to books on low-cost index fund investing, exchange-traded funds, asset allocation and planning for retirement.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

So what are you getting when you pay for high priced stock pickers?


When analysts say 'sell,' it is time to buy, data show

Stocks unpopular with Wall Street up 165% since March 2009

January 16, 2011 6:01 am ET

Following the advice of equity analysts may be perilous to your profits

Although companies in the S&P 500 that analysts loved the most saw their stocks rise 73% on average since the benchmark for U.S. equity started to recover in March 2009, those with the fewest “buy” recommendations gained 165%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Don Wordell, a fund manager at RidgeWorth Capital Management Inc., said that equities that Wall Street firms rate lowest are more likely to beat the market.

“When you have a stock that has 15 analysts covering it and it has 15 "buys,' I can't imagine it has much outperformance left,” said Mr. Wordell, whose $1.64 billion RidgeWorth Mid-Cap Value Equity Fund topped 98% of its peers over the past five years. “You've got a stock that has 15 "sells' on it, you're set up there to have some strong outperformance.”





Sunday, January 16, 2011

3 minutes with Warren Buffett


A good friend of mine will often say to me: "Mike, do yourself a favor" then proceed with advice or a recommendation. I will do the same for my readers. Do yourself a favor and spend less than 3 minutes watching the following 2 YouTube clips of of Warren Buffett giving his advice to the average investor:

1. Stay out of debt
2. Save regularly
3. Buy INDEX funds (for more info on index funds explore my past blogs)
4. Don't try and time the market. We lose a lot of money listening to the financial press and then buying and selling at the wrong time.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEX81lGhMwM&feature=related

This is advice that I have promoted and expanded on in previous blog posts.

My mission is to educate and spread sound financial learning in all of my writing - an effort to explain and expand on the ideas of Warren and other financial thinkers.