An Instructive Sunday read as told by Malcom Gladwell: Black Swans and the Difficulty of Beating Markets

Last fall, Niederhoffer sold a large number of options, betting that the markets would be quiet, and they were, until out of nowhere two planes crashed into the World Trade Center. "I was exposed. It was nip and tuck." Niederhoffer shook his head, because there was no way to have anticipated September 11th. "That was a totally unexpected event."

The above is the last paragraph from a great New Yorker piece by Malcom Gladwell. I have read dozens of books, articles, and studies on he difficulty of beating the market. For me, this story is one of the most telling: Since nobody can know the future how can you outperform the market over time - no matter how smart you are. A great lesson, I re-read this often.

Spend less than an hour with this well told, instructive story

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm